Short-term travel plans hold firm, but signs of hesitation emerge among UK consumers
Recent geopolitical tensions and disruption to international aviation routes have created uncertainty around how UK travellers may respond in their holiday planning. In partnership with Travel Weekly, The Harris Poll UK surveyed a nationally representative sample of UK adults in mid-March 2026 to understand initial consumer reaction.
The research explored near-term travel intentions, recent shifts in booking behaviour, destination preferences, and confidence in travelling to or via Gulf destinations. It also examined how willingness to travel abroad varies across different time horizons over the coming year.
The findings offer an early indication of how global instability is shaping travel decision-making. They highlight the extent to which consumers are delaying commitments, reassessing risk and adapting plans rather than stepping away from overseas travel altogether.
Imminent trips remain booked, but decision-making is slowing
Around three in ten UK consumers (31%) already have an international holiday booked within the next four to six weeks. A further 17% say they are planning a trip but have yet to finalise arrangements, while 15% remain in the consideration phase.
Together, these figures indicate that while appetite for travel remains intact, a sizeable share of consumers is pausing before making firm commitments. This suggests a shift towards more deliberate and flexible planning.
Uncertainty is influencing behaviour rather than driving cancellations
For most travellers, plans have not yet materially changed. Nearly six in ten (58%) report no adjustments to their travel intentions so far. However, emerging behavioural signals point to a more tentative mindset.
One in ten consumers say they are delaying booking decisions, while a similar proportion are either considering destinations closer to home or have chosen to postpone travelling abroad for the time being. Rather than abandoning travel altogether, many appear to be entering a “wait-and-see” phase and are monitoring developments before locking in plans.
Global tensions weigh on travel confidence
Among those who have already altered their plans, geopolitical uncertainty stands out as the primary driver. Almost half (47%) cite international tensions as influencing their decisions. Practical concerns also feature prominently, with 34% worried about potential flight disruption and 29% expressing concerns about personal safety.
Financial pressures are also shaping behaviour. Nearly a third (31%) point to rising travel costs as a contributing factor. This reinforces the sense that travellers are balancing both global risks and household budgets when planning overseas trips.
Travel confidence improves over longer time horizons
While short-term hesitation is evident, the longer-term outlook for international travel appears more positive. Just over a quarter (28%) say they are very likely to travel abroad within the next three months. This rises to one-third (33%) over a six-month horizon and reaches 42% when consumers consider travel within the next year.
When those who are “quite likely” to travel are included, the potential traveller base becomes even larger. This pattern suggests that many consumers view their current caution as temporary and expect both geopolitical and economic conditions to become more favourable over time.
A pause for now, not a pullback
Taken together, the findings point to a nuanced shift in travel sentiment. UK consumers are not stepping away from international travel altogether. Instead, they are recalibrating by delaying decisions, reassessing destinations, and waiting for greater clarity before committing.
For both travel brands and policymakers, this signals an environment where demand remains present, but confidence must be actively supported. Those looking to navigate this uncertainty will need a clear, real-time understanding of how consumer sentiment is evolving in order to respond effectively. Flexibility, reassurance, and value are likely to play an increasingly important role in shaping travel behaviour in the months ahead.
Those looking to navigate this uncertainty will need a clear, real-time understanding of how consumer sentiment is evolving in order to respond effectively. To learn more about how these insights can support your strategy, get in touch with The Harris Poll UK.