Reasons to Be Cheerful: UK Economic Confidence Takes a Big Step Forward
There’s good news on the UK economic front, and its news worth celebrating. Consumer sentiment has seen a significant uplift. The latest Maru monthly ‘Cost of Living’ survey of UK consumers shows an 11% increase in consumer economic confidence. We have been tracking sentiment around the cost-of-living since April 2021, and the recent results are the clearest sign yet that the national mood is shifting and that optimism is on the rise.
This surge in sentiment reflects broader positive developments in the economic landscape despite the previous uncertainty that has inundated the international climate. The UK GDP exceeded expectations in Q1, and a flurry of new international trade agreements has added momentum to a growing sense of economic recovery. The IMF also agrees as they have raised their predicted UK growth forecast for 2025 upwards from 1.2% to 1.4%.
It is a strong signal that the UK economy is building resilience and that consumers are beginning to believe in a brighter future.
Resilience in the Face of Global Uncertainty
One of the more encouraging aspects of this positive shift in sentiment comes from a national sense of resilience in the face of continued global uncertainty. The temporary turmoil that impacted the global stock market following President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ decisions were not as monumental as was initially feared.
Even with the rumoured potential resurgence of protectionist trade policy, UK consumers appear undeterred. Their confidence in the national economic outlook suggests a belief that Britain can weather external volatility. For businesses and brands, this presents a great opportunity in understanding that confidence breeds spending, and a resilient mindset provides a solid foundation for long-term investment.
Mind the Gap: Optimism vs. Personal Finances
However, not all consumers are feeling the benefits just yet. While confidence in the broader economy jumped 11%, perceptions of personal financial wellbeing rose by a more modest 7%. At the same time, consumers are still feeling the sting of price rises — especially across everyday essentials, clothing and electronics.
This disconnect between national optimism and individual experience creates a ‘reality gap,’ one that is likely to make consumers cautious in the short term. Until wage growth, inflation moderation, and improved affordability are more keenly felt in households across the UK, we can expect this lag in personal confidence to persist.
Looking Ahead
For now, the headline is clear: economic sentiment in the UK is on the up. That positivity, backed by improved GDP figures, stronger trade positioning, and upgraded forecasts, sets the stage for continued recovery.
But as ever, it will take time for optimism at the macro level to translate into tangible change in people's lives. In the months ahead, brands should keep a close eye on the evolving gap between perception and reality — and look for ways to support and empower consumers through the next phase of economic recovery.
The Harris Poll UK is a leading market research company that provides some of the UK’s best-loved brands with game-changing insights. We utilise a combination of proprietary software and advisory services to deliver data insights via custom service models. We help our clients make informed decisions based on our in-depth industry expertise and our continual exploration of evolving consumer needs and priorities. We know that when a company’s Business Strategy and Customer Strategy are one and the same, their brand and their employees are better placed to succeed.
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